Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1248 at 08:48, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1248 United	ATW 08:48	DEN 10:38	8%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 12:44 → DEN 13:47DL 1648	7h 47m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	7h 05m	94%	80%
American Details →	ATW 05:39 → ORD 06:52AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 09:45 → DEN 11:41AA 2363	7h 02m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → DEN 17:07DL 2431	6h 58m	94%	79%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	3h 55m Chicago	ORD 13:40 → DEN 15:21UA 2324	8h 06m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	ATW 11:27 → MSP 12:48DL 4951 · flown by Endeavor	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 14:27 → DEN 15:30DL 1025	5h 03m	83%	73%
United Details →	ATW 12:28 → ORD 13:51UA 4757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 16:12 → DEN 18:13UA 2769	6h 45m	97%	70%
United Details →	ATW 12:24 → ORD 13:46UA 4170 · flown by GoJet	2h 48m Chicago	ORD 16:34 → DEN 18:23UA 1882	6h 59m	98%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 18:17 → DEN 20:22UA 1974	5h 38m	71%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON