Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 4189 at 06:06, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4189 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ATW 06:06	DFW 08:54	7%	4%	1.0%	95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATW 05:30 → ATL 08:42DL 1436	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	7h 07m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor	3h 40m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DFW 13:31DL 2970	7h 31m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Detroit	DTW 12:35 → DFW 14:18DL 1041	7h 18m	99%	79%
United Details →	ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 13:05 → DFW 15:48UA 2290	7h 33m	100%	78%
American Details →	ATW 05:39 → ORD 06:52AA 3721 · flown by Envoy	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 08:30 → DFW 11:04AA 1555	5h 25m	99%	73%
United Details →	ATW 12:24 → ORD 13:46UA 4170 · flown by GoJet	1h 54m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	5h 58m	97%	69%
United Details →	ATW 15:44 → ORD 17:05UA 4391 · flown by GoJet	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	6h 52m	91%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON