tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Appleton). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ATW 05:30 → ATL 08:42DL 1436 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 8h 35m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → ATW 07:00 → DTW 09:25DL 4176 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 8h 28m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → ATW 06:00 → MSP 07:20DL 4995 · flown by Endeavor 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 8h 26m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → ATW 08:15 → ORD 09:45UA 4190 · flown by GoJet 1h 22m Chicago ORD 11:07 → LAS 13:05UA 1803 6h 50m 93% 73%
DeltaDetails → ATW 11:09 → DTW 13:30DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest 3h 05m Detroit DTW 16:35 → LAS 17:51DL 766 8h 42m 96% 73%
AmericanDetails → ATW 06:06 → DFW 08:54AA 4189 · flown by Envoy 1h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → LAS 11:39AA 1482 7h 33m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → ATW 05:39 → ORD 06:52AA 3721 · flown by Envoy 3h 16m Chicago ORD 10:08 → LAS 12:12AA 1497 8h 33m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → ATW 12:24 → ORD 13:46UA 4170 · flown by GoJet 2h 01m Chicago ORD 15:47 → LAS 17:51UA 1875 7h 27m 97% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON