Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 777 at 11:38 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 777 Southwest	AUS 11:38	ABQ 12:45	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 164 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 18:03	ABQ 19:10	22%	5%	0.5%	100%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → ABQ 16:54DL 730	8h 11m	97%	87%
United Details →	AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393	3h 51m Houston	IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa	7h 17m	100%	86%
United Details →	AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966	3h 33m Houston	IAH 09:56 → ABQ 11:22UA 625	7h 02m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ABQ 15:07DL 1109	7h 52m	98%	84%
United Details →	AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595	3h 40m Denver	DEN 13:30 → ABQ 14:57UA 1594	7h 26m	99%	83%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:57 → ABQ 09:49AA 3535 · flown by Envoy	5h 48m	98%	82%
American Details →	AUS 06:14 → CLT 10:03AA 1032	1h 15m Charlotte	CLT 11:18 → ABQ 12:58AA 3319	7h 44m	93%	81%
American Details →	AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579	3h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:52 → ABQ 11:46AA 3586 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 15:13 → DFW 16:33AA 2198	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:31 → ABQ 18:25AA 2698	4h 12m	73%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON