Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Amarillo on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	2h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:38 → AMA 10:00AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	4h 59m	98%	87%
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	3h 09m Houston	IAH 20:34 → AMA 22:30UA 4839 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 20m	97%	81%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	1h 40m Houston	IAH 12:25 → AMA 14:21UA 4817 · flown by CommuteAir	4h 46m	98%	81%
American Details →	AUS 09:23 → DFW 10:42AA 862	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → AMA 14:37AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	5h 14m	95%	77%
American Details →	AUS 10:38 → DFW 11:58AA 794	2h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → AMA 15:50AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	5h 12m	96%	74%
American Details →	AUS 15:13 → DFW 16:33AA 2198	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → AMA 21:28AA 3607 · flown by Envoy	6h 15m	92%	66%
American Details →	AUS 18:52 → DFW 20:07AA 3722 · flown by Envoy	1h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:19 → AMA 22:40AA 2265	3h 48m	89%	43%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 15:13 → DFW 16:33AA 2198	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:23 → AMA 18:42AA 3789 · flown by Envoy	3h 29m	67%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON