tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:31, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Aspen on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595 3h 50m Denver DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest 7h 13m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447 2h 48m Denver DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest 6h 26m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:43 → DEN 13:53UA 1541 3h 32m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 46m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 47m Denver DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest 4h 07m 91% 79%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:58 → LAX 15:09UA 637 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 16:20 → ASE 19:33UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 6h 35m 88% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966 3h 27m Houston IAH 09:50 → ASE 11:40UA 5814 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 58m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 94% 74%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:29 → SFO 15:30UA 1336 55m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → ASE 19:55UA 5711 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 75% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON