Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1344 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 1344 AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 4702 AUS 18:36 → ATL 22:13 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1344 Delta Flight history →	AUS 05:25	ATL 08:47	6%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 398 Southwest	AUS 08:58	ATL 12:18	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1258 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:25	ATL 09:45	7%	3%	0.6%	94%
DL 2899 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	ATL 11:26	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	AUS 10:35	ATL 13:54	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:22	ATL 16:52	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	AUS 17:00	ATL 20:39	15%	7%	1.0%	80%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:00	ATL 18:25	17%	5%	1.3%	79%
WN 351 Southwest	AUS 16:13	ATL 19:33	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
F9 4702 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 18:36	ATL 22:13	36%	13%	4.1%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON