Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4446 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4446 AUS 06:58 → BNA 09:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3945 AUS 15:47 → BNA 18:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4446 Southwest	AUS 06:58	BNA 09:18	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3290 Southwest	AUS 00:06	BNA 01:54	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3697 Southwest	AUS 10:28	BNA 12:43	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 08:14	BNA 10:28	13%	6%	0.5%	79%
WN 2774 Southwest	AUS 14:53	BNA 17:13	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 403 Southwest	AUS 19:33	BNA 21:48	20%	7%	0.7%	no record
DL 3945 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 15:47	BNA 18:01	22%	10%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON