tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:31, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 6h 17m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:29 → SFO 15:30UA 1336 3h 06m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → BUR 19:58UA 2001 8h 29m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 1h 35m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 8h 31m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447 2h 48m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 7h 55m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:40 → SFO 10:25UA 1668 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 37m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 7h 49m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → AUS 18:04 → SLC 20:02DL 2581 48m Salt Lake City SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339 5h 44m 77% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON