tailodds FORECAST
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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Dulles, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Charleston on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:30 → IAD 11:48UA 525 1h 34m Dulles IAD 13:22 → CHS 15:16UA 1952 6h 46m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 52m Denver DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003 8h 35m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:43DL 2179 7h 18m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → CHS 15:53DL 1381 6h 38m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → CHS 17:19DL 2174 5h 44m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → AUS 06:14 → CLT 10:03AA 1032 2h 24m Charlotte CLT 12:27 → CHS 13:48AA 5222 · flown by PSA 6h 34m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 56m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → CHS 11:54DL 3107 4h 29m 91% 78%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:35 → ORD 09:34UA 1878 1h 17m Chicago ORD 10:51 → CHS 14:09UA 2631 6h 34m 96% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON