Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4378 at 15:53, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4378 Southwest	AUS 15:53	CMH 19:45	19%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	3h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → CMH 15:42DL 2550	8h 32m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:00 → DTW 16:02DL 1218	3h 52m Detroit	DTW 19:54 → CMH 21:02DL 5838 · flown by Republic	8h 02m	98%	88%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	2h 37m Denver	DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480	7h 49m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	3h 19m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	7h 13m	98%	86%
American Details →	AUS 06:06 → JFK 11:00AA 2292	3h 44m New York	JFK 14:44 → CMH 16:45AA 4767 · flown by Republic	9h 39m	99%	86%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	1h 30m Houston	IAH 12:15 → CMH 16:05UA 4072 · flown by Mesa	5h 30m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 14:21 → CMH 15:58DL 2892	6h 43m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 07:35 → JFK 12:25DL 1411	3h 00m New York	JFK 15:25 → CMH 17:35DL 5650 · flown by Republic	9h 00m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON