Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2170 at 11:36, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2170 Southwest	AUS 11:36	CVG 15:08	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5005 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 10:30	CVG 14:12	17%	9%	0.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:40 → CVG 14:28UA 1978	7h 49m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098	2h 12m Boston	BOS 14:41 → CVG 17:16DL 5789 · flown by Republic	8h 56m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → CVG 15:12DL 3169	5h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:34 → CVG 19:03DL 1858	7h 28m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → CVG 12:38DL 3149	5h 13m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:45 → MSP 18:36DL 2062	1h 44m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469	6h 26m	93%	84%
United Details →	AUS 06:09 → EWR 10:56UA 1760	2h 59m Newark	EWR 13:55 → CVG 16:16UA 3455 · flown by Republic	9h 07m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:22 → ATL 16:52DL 2011	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:31 → CVG 21:59DL 2248	7h 37m	99%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → CVG 23:36UA 1223	5h 16m	70%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON