tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Washington on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 266 Southwest AUS 16:38 DCA 20:59 23% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966 1h 22m Houston IAH 07:45 → DCA 11:40UA 512 5h 20m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 1h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 6h 38m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest 1h 56m Minneapolis MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963 7h 26m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789 8h 20m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098 3h 22m Boston BOS 15:51 → DCA 17:56DL 5689 · flown by Republic 9h 36m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 15:45 → MSP 18:36DL 2062 1h 54m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961 7h 13m 94% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 42m Houston IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654 7h 53m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 6h 27m 96% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON