Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4626 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4626 AUS 06:33 → DEN 08:08 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 313 AUS 17:28 → DEN 18:53 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4626 Southwest	AUS 06:33	DEN 08:08	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 361 United Flight history →	AUS 05:39	DEN 06:58	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
WN 1684 Southwest	AUS 10:08	DEN 11:33	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3933 United	AUS 06:55	DEN 08:27	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3876 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 10:33	DEN 12:27	8%	5%	0.5%	92%
UA 595 United Flight history →	AUS 08:31	DEN 09:50	8%	3%	0.6%	89%
WN 1143 Southwest	AUS 12:48	DEN 14:13	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1541 United Flight history →	AUS 12:43	DEN 13:53	11%	4%	0.6%	96%
UA 2447 United Flight history →	AUS 14:45	DEN 16:22	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
F9 2047 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 20:20	DEN 21:45	18%	6%	1.1%	70%
WN 313 Southwest	AUS 17:28	DEN 18:53	22%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON