Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2563 at 05:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2563 AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2103 AUS 16:31 → DFW 17:50 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2563 American Flight history →	AUS 05:01	DFW 06:12	7%	4%	1.0%	93%
AA 579 American Flight history →	AUS 06:00	DFW 07:19	7%	4%	1.0%	91%
AA 2196 American Flight history →	AUS 06:58	DFW 08:23	9%	5%	1.0%	86%
AA 794 American Flight history →	AUS 10:38	DFW 11:58	13%	7%	1.0%	80%
AA 1067 American	AUS 07:59	DFW 09:22	14%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 862 American Flight history →	AUS 09:23	DFW 10:42	15%	6%	1.0%	66%
AA 615 American Flight history →	AUS 11:37	DFW 12:56	16%	8%	1.0%	80%
AA 1070 American	AUS 12:43	DFW 14:00	17%	8%	1.1%	no record
AA 3722 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AUS 18:52	DFW 20:07	19%	7%	4.1%	74%
AA 1852 American	AUS 14:07	DFW 15:19	22%	9%	1.1%	no record
AA 2198 American Flight history →	AUS 15:13	DFW 16:33	26%	10%	1.8%	65%
AA 1146 American	AUS 17:33	DFW 18:59	28%	11%	3.6%	no record
AA 2103 American	AUS 16:31	DFW 17:50	28%	12%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON