Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 512 Southwest	AUS 14:33	ECP 16:41	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 3767 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 13:00	ECP 15:12	19%	9%	0.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → ECP 12:40DL 2823	7h 15m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → ECP 16:06DL 3094	5h 31m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:22 → ATL 16:52DL 2011	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 18:58 → ECP 19:12DL 3053	5h 50m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	56m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045	4h 23m	91%	80%
Delta Details →	AUS 17:00 → ATL 20:39DL 1397	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 22:51 → ECP 22:58DL 3131	5h 58m	97%	78%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:02 → ECP 12:13AA 3625 · flown by Envoy	7h 12m	98%	78%
American Details →	AUS 06:14 → CLT 10:03AA 1032	2h 04m Charlotte	CLT 12:07 → ECP 13:00AA 5262 · flown by PSA	6h 46m	95%	77%
United Details →	AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966	2h 58m Houston	IAH 09:21 → ECP 11:01UA 4225 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 41m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON