tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 656 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 656 Southwest AUS 06:58 ELP 07:51 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 4104 Southwest AUS 17:58 ELP 18:40 18% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 7h 55m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595 1h 46m Denver DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:31UA 2128 6h 00m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:58 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 2h 30m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 5h 46m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 57m Houston IAH 12:10 → ELP 13:15UA 4361 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 05m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 35m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 50m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → ELP 09:22AA 1365 5h 21m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 5h 51m 90% 72%
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447 2h 58m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 26m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:58 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 47m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 4h 03m 60% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON