tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 525 United Flight history → AUS 07:30 IAD 11:48 6% 3% 0.6% 95%
UA 376 United Flight history → AUS 17:10 IAD 21:36 14% 5% 0.6% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 1h 02m Denver DEN 08:00 → IAD 13:26UA 1101 6h 47m 97% 90%
DeltaDetails → AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 8h 01m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966 1h 02m Houston IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:32UA 1549 5h 12m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242 57m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595 2h 36m Denver DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853 8h 27m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393 3h 50m Houston IAH 12:03 → IAD 16:14UA 3904 8h 04m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:01 → DTW 11:58DL 559 2h 49m Detroit DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787 7h 21m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 06:35 → ORD 09:34UA 1878 3h 31m Chicago ORD 13:05 → IAD 16:07UA 1128 8h 32m 99% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa 1h 07m Houston IAH 18:32 → IAD 22:43UA 1373 5h 33m 75% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON