Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1966 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day UA 1966 AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 730 AUS 14:22 → IAH 15:19 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1966 United Flight history →	AUS 05:20	IAH 06:23	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
UA 2196 United Flight history →	AUS 09:35	IAH 10:45	13%	4%	0.6%	76%
UA 2393 United Flight history →	AUS 07:10	IAH 08:13	19%	4%	0.7%	56%
UA 350 United	AUS 12:13	IAH 13:14	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 1326 United Flight history →	AUS 17:58	IAH 19:10	22%	8%	0.7%	68%
UA 730 United	AUS 14:22	IAH 15:19	25%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 4004 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	AUS 16:10	IAH 17:25	27%	17%	0.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON