Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1604 at 13:33, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1604 Southwest	AUS 13:33	JAX 17:02	19%	6%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 10:15 → JAX 14:06DL 2392	6h 56m	97%	88%
United Details →	AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966	1h 12m Houston	IAH 07:35 → JAX 10:56UA 6146 · flown by Mesa	4h 36m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → JAX 13:25DL 3024	6h 00m	98%	83%
United Details →	AUS 07:10 → IAH 08:13UA 2393	3h 57m Houston	IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa	7h 27m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	5h 35m	95%	81%
United Details →	AUS 12:43 → DEN 13:53UA 1541	2h 14m Denver	DEN 16:07 → JAX 21:40UA 1485	7h 57m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 14:07 → JAX 15:19DL 2990	6h 04m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:34 → JAX 17:50DL 2440	6h 15m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	50m Houston	IAH 18:15 → JAX 21:41UA 4035 · flown by Mesa	4h 31m	64%	50%
United Details →	AUS 17:58 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	50m Houston	IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20UA 2293	4h 22m	67%	50%
American Details →	AUS 18:05 → MIA 22:04AA 2324	49m Miami	MIA 22:53 → JAX 00:15 +1AA 416	5h 10m	65%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON