Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2292 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day AA 2292 AUS 06:06 → JFK 11:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1405 AUS 16:13 → JFK 21:13 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2292 American Flight history →	AUS 06:06	JFK 11:00	7%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 1411 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:35	JFK 12:25	8%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 1406 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:15	JFK 16:20	15%	4%	0.7%	86%
AA 763 American Flight history →	AUS 11:02	JFK 15:59	18%	6%	0.9%	78%
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	AUS 17:15	JFK 22:25	19%	6%	0.8%	80%
AA 1405 American Flight history →	AUS 16:13	JFK 21:13	29%	8%	0.9%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON