Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 344 at 05:48 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 344 AUS 05:48 → LAS 06:54 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3645 AUS 16:04 → LAS 16:57 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 344 Southwest	AUS 05:48	LAS 06:54	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4578 Southwest	AUS 00:14	LAS 00:50	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 345 Southwest	AUS 10:28	LAS 11:29	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 347 Southwest	AUS 13:03	LAS 14:09	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 352 Southwest	AUS 19:43	LAS 20:44	25%	10%	0.8%	no record
DL 2260 Delta Flight history →	AUS 15:29	LAS 16:20	26%	9%	0.6%	72%
WN 4200 Southwest	AUS 17:48	LAS 18:59	29%	12%	1.1%	no record
F9 3645 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 16:04	LAS 16:57	34%	12%	1.1%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON