Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 200 at 06:33 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18%.

Safest bet that day WN 200 AUS 06:33 → LAX 07:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1584 AUS 18:56 → LAX 20:09 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 200 Southwest	AUS 06:33	LAX 07:57	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 6472 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 07:05	LAX 08:40	9%	5%	0.5%	100%
DL 306 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:30	LAX 08:37	10%	3%	0.6%	92%
UA 357 United Flight history →	AUS 07:58	LAX 09:22	11%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 946 Delta Flight history →	AUS 13:40	LAX 14:48	13%	4%	0.6%	90%
WN 3939 Southwest	AUS 13:43	LAX 15:07	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 6243 SkyWest	AUS 15:18	LAX 16:45	14%	5%	0.5%	no record
UA 637 United Flight history →	AUS 13:58	LAX 15:09	16%	6%	0.6%	89%
WN 421 Southwest	AUS 17:53	LAX 19:17	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
DL 1584 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:56	LAX 20:09	18%	5%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON