tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 05:01, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Midland on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Midland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:36 → MAF 09:56AA 3643 · flown by Envoy 4h 55m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966 57m Houston IAH 07:20 → MAF 08:52UA 6263 · flown by Mesa 3h 32m 94% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361 3h 07m Denver DEN 10:05 → MAF 12:59UA 5333 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 3h 50m Houston IAH 14:35 → MAF 16:15UA 6322 · flown by Mesa 6h 40m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:58 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 2h 39m Houston IAH 21:49 → MAF 23:51UA 1592 5h 53m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → AUS 10:38 → DFW 11:58AA 794 3h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:39 → MAF 16:58AA 3653 · flown by Envoy 6h 20m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → AUS 15:13 → DFW 16:33AA 2198 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:12 → MAF 21:30AA 4172 · flown by Envoy 6h 17m 92% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON