Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3150 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 3150 AUS 05:45 → MCO 09:25 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3813 AUS 16:13 → MCO 19:51 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3150 Southwest	AUS 05:45	MCO 09:25	4%	1%	4.3%	no record
WN 1337 Southwest	AUS 07:23	MCO 11:11	7%	2%	6.0%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:00	MCO 11:40	9%	4%	6.1%	87%
F9 4524 Frontier Flight history →	AUS 10:50	MCO 14:45	13%	5%	3.3%	80%
WN 4582 Southwest	AUS 11:38	MCO 15:21	14%	3%	1.7%	no record
DL 648 Delta	AUS 15:20	MCO 19:08	20%	6%	1.5%	no record
WN 370 Southwest	AUS 19:03	MCO 22:41	22%	6%	1.5%	no record
WN 3813 Southwest	AUS 16:13	MCO 19:51	24%	6%	1.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON