Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:25, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	6h 07m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → MEM 13:17DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700	6h 54m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681	6h 21m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → MEM 10:32DL 2937	5h 07m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 12:00 → DTW 16:02DL 1218	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049	6h 55m	96%	81%
United Details →	AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595	1h 04m Denver	DEN 10:54 → MEM 14:18UA 2789	5h 47m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:45 → MSP 18:36DL 2062	1h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest	6h 30m	90%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 18:38 → ORD 21:43AA 1568	47m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → MEM 00:18 +1AA 3945 · flown by Envoy	5h 40m	64%	50%
United Details →	AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990	59m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → MEM 23:21UA 2317	6h 01m	66%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON