Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 406 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 406 AUS 05:02 → MIA 08:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2324 AUS 18:05 → MIA 22:04 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 406 American Flight history →	AUS 05:02	MIA 08:58	11%	3%	1.3%	91%
DL 2507 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:35	MIA 12:35	12%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 812 American Flight history →	AUS 11:58	MIA 15:58	22%	5%	1.0%	80%
WN 819 Southwest	AUS 13:38	MIA 17:29	25%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2324 American Flight history →	AUS 18:05	MIA 22:04	30%	9%	0.9%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON