Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Milwaukee on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	2h 59m Denver	DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836	7h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	7h 25m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151	6h 26m	95%	84%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	3h 48m Houston	IAH 14:33 → MKE 17:28UA 6139 · flown by Mesa	7h 53m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206	6h 24m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Minneapolis	MSP 13:43 → MKE 15:02DL 2006	5h 19m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:22 → ATL 16:52DL 2011	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02DL 2388	7h 40m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	AUS 17:00 → ATL 20:39DL 1397	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → MKE 23:43DL 1268	6h 43m	96%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 17:58 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	47m Houston	IAH 19:57 → MKE 22:59UA 4774 · flown by SkyWest	5h 01m	57%	47%
United Details →	AUS 13:01 → ORD 15:57UA 456	53m Chicago	ORD 16:50 → MKE 17:54UA 5262 · flown by SkyWest	4h 53m	68%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON