Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 359 at 08:53 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 359 AUS 08:53 → MSY 10:25 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 141 AUS 15:22 → MSY 17:02 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 359 Southwest	AUS 08:53	MSY 10:25	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1762 Southwest	AUS 13:33	MSY 15:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 215 Southwest Flight history →	AUS 17:53	MSY 19:25	18%	6%	0.6%	64%
OO 141 SkyWest	AUS 15:22	MSY 17:02	19%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON