Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Las Vegas, leaving 15:29, is the safest bet: 56% chance of reaching Oakland on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1151 Southwest	AUS 14:38	OAK 16:34	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	AUS 16:17 → SEA 18:47AS 503	1h 58m Seattle	SEA 20:45 → OAK 22:48AS 706	8h 31m	94%	61%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:29 → LAS 16:20DL 2260	1h 04m Las Vegas	LAS 17:24 → OAK 19:01DL 8895	5h 32m	78%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON