Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 541 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 07:15	PDX 09:25	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
AS 1396 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 17:41	PDX 19:50	15%	5%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 10:51 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 30m	97%	90%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247	6h 08m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	9h 52m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503	10h 14m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	9h 33m	96%	84%
United Details →	AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595	3h 39m Denver	DEN 13:29 → PDX 15:15UA 8255	8h 44m	99%	84%
United Details →	AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966	3h 07m Houston	IAH 09:30 → PDX 11:56UA 740	8h 36m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 18:04 → SLC 20:02DL 2581	1h 43m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:45 → PDX 22:38DL 1373	6h 34m	94%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 15:13 → DFW 16:33AA 2198	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:20 → PDX 19:29AA 685	6h 16m	62%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON