Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2774 AUS 07:30 → PHL 12:05 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest YX 4790 AUS 14:10 → PHL 19:08 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2774 American Flight history →	AUS 07:30	PHL 12:05	11%	4%	0.7%	85%
YX 4779 Republic	AUS 12:44	PHL 17:44	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
YX 4790 Republic	AUS 14:10	PHL 19:08	16%	6%	0.7%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966	1h 07m Houston	IAH 07:30 → PHL 11:40UA 2203	5h 20m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	49m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	5h 00m	87%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON