Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 396 at 06:53 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 396 AUS 06:53 → PHX 07:33 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1059 AUS 14:25 → PHX 15:02 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 396 Southwest	AUS 06:53	PHX 07:33	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
OO 3535 SkyWest	AUS 07:57	PHX 08:43	11%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 206 Southwest	AUS 12:58	PHX 13:38	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 455 American Flight history →	AUS 08:29	PHX 09:17	15%	5%	0.8%	90%
WN 399 Southwest	AUS 15:18	PHX 16:03	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 2042 American Flight history →	AUS 12:04	PHX 12:28	19%	7%	0.7%	83%
WN 518 Southwest	AUS 18:03	PHX 18:43	19%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1059 American	AUS 14:25	PHX 15:02	24%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON