Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 301 at 15:03, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 301 Southwest	AUS 15:03	PIT 19:10	19%	7%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 08:01 → DTW 11:58DL 559	2h 21m Detroit	DTW 14:19 → PIT 15:39DL 4640 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	97%	89%
United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	3h 07m Denver	DEN 10:05 → PIT 15:16UA 1308	8h 37m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345	6h 27m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 07:20 → BOS 12:29DL 2098	2h 51m Boston	BOS 15:20 → PIT 17:27DL 5680 · flown by Republic	9h 07m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:01 → PIT 18:45DL 3122	7h 10m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → PIT 17:08DL 1568	7h 53m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 07:35 → JFK 12:25DL 1411	2h 45m New York	JFK 15:10 → PIT 17:15DL 5685 · flown by Republic	8h 40m	98%	84%
United Details →	AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966	1h 19m Houston	IAH 07:42 → PIT 11:45UA 6156 · flown by Mesa	5h 25m	97%	84%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 17:20 → ORD 20:21UA 1990	59m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → PIT 23:59UA 3464 · flown by Republic	5h 39m	66%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON