Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 310 at 09:48, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 310 Southwest	AUS 09:48	PNS 11:45	9%	2%	4.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640	7h 30m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211	6h 35m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → PNS 14:41DL 1013	6h 26m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 15:00 → ATL 18:25DL 2104	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → PNS 21:59DL 3086	6h 59m	99%	84%
United Details →	AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595	1h 34m Denver	DEN 11:24 → PNS 15:19UA 1891	6h 48m	98%	83%
United Details →	AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196	3h 35m Houston	IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir	6h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:22 → ATL 16:52DL 2011	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → PNS 20:51DL 3021	7h 29m	99%	80%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:13 → PNS 11:09AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	6h 08m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 18:05 → MIA 22:04AA 2324	1h 04m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	5h 54m	72%	59%
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	47m Houston	IAH 18:12 → PNS 19:58UA 6195 · flown by Mesa	3h 48m	54%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON