Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4921 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	AUS 09:59	RDU 14:19	8%	5%	1.1%	83%
WN 2144 Southwest	AUS 12:33	RDU 16:36	15%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	2h 51m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	8h 37m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → RDU 14:09DL 2521	6h 59m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → ATL 11:26DL 2899	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → RDU 15:57DL 1550	6h 42m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488	6h 17m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:25 → ATL 09:45DL 1258	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026	7h 05m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 14:36 → RDU 18:12DL 2699	7h 29m	97%	83%
American Details →	AUS 06:06 → JFK 11:00AA 2292	1h 59m New York	JFK 12:59 → RDU 14:57AA 4658 · flown by Republic	7h 51m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097	7h 40m	100%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	AUS 13:22 → ATL 16:52DL 2011	48m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → RDU 19:15DL 1097	4h 53m	75%	62%
American Details →	AUS 15:13 → DFW 16:33AA 2198	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:30 → RDU 21:21AA 979	5h 08m	72%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON