tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 6h 41m 96% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 54m 94% 83%
DeltaDetails → AUS 18:56 → LAX 20:09DL 1584 1h 50m Los Angeles LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest 6h 32m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595 1h 30m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 6h 08m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:43 → DEN 13:53UA 1541 2h 17m Denver DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604 6h 53m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → AUS 18:04 → SLC 20:02DL 2581 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → RNO 21:57DL 1607 5h 53m 92% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447 3h 03m Denver DEN 19:25 → RNO 20:50UA 719 8h 05m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:58 → LAX 15:09UA 637 1h 26m Los Angeles LAX 16:35 → RNO 18:11UA 401 6h 13m 90% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON