Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 3293 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 3293 AUS 06:00 → SAN 07:08 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest OO 3464 AUS 16:50 → SAN 17:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3293 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SAN 07:08	10%	5%	0.8%	89%
WN 699 Southwest	AUS 08:23	SAN 09:40	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 416 Southwest	AUS 12:03	SAN 13:20	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3489 SkyWest	AUS 14:09	SAN 15:18	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
WN 417 Southwest	AUS 15:08	SAN 16:25	23%	6%	0.6%	no record
OO 3300 SkyWest	AUS 20:15	SAN 21:24	24%	7%	1.6%	no record
WN 418 Southwest	AUS 19:13	SAN 20:25	25%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 3464 SkyWest	AUS 16:50	SAN 17:59	26%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON