Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 780 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 780 AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 339 AUS 19:07 → SEA 21:35 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 780 Delta Flight history →	AUS 06:00	SEA 08:23	6%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1684 Delta Flight history →	AUS 11:19	SEA 13:50	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
WN 320 Southwest	AUS 11:03	SEA 13:36	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 224 Alaska	AUS 08:33	SEA 10:37	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
AS 503 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 16:17	SEA 18:47	22%	7%	0.8%	87%
AS 339 Alaska Flight history →	AUS 19:07	SEA 21:35	26%	10%	1.0%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON