Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 381 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 381 AUS 07:10 → SFO 08:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest UA 1204 AUS 20:37 → SFO 22:22 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 381 Delta Flight history →	AUS 07:10	SFO 08:47	9%	4%	0.6%	72%
UA 1668 United Flight history →	AUS 08:40	SFO 10:25	21%	7%	0.6%	73%
UA 1336 United Flight history →	AUS 13:29	SFO 15:30	22%	11%	0.6%	67%
WN 4382 Southwest	AUS 16:18	SFO 18:20	23%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 442 United Flight history →	AUS 15:24	SFO 17:13	28%	10%	0.6%	65%
UA 292 United Flight history →	AUS 20:05	SFO 21:50	29%	10%	0.7%	64%
UA 1204 United	AUS 20:37	SFO 22:22	30%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON