Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 13:40, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1974 Southwest	AUS 18:18	SJC 20:16	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	3h 12m Los Angeles	LAX 18:00 → SJC 19:15DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	7h 35m	98%	87%
Alaska Details →	AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541	1h 19m Portland	PDX 10:44 → SJC 12:37AS 1413	7h 22m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	AUS 09:43 → MSP 12:41DL 3813 · flown by SkyWest	2h 49m Minneapolis	MSP 15:30 → SJC 17:34DL 2087	9h 51m	97%	83%
American Details →	AUS 08:29 → PHX 09:17AA 455	1h 52m Phoenix	PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	6h 46m	93%	83%
United Details →	AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595	1h 43m Denver	DEN 11:33 → SJC 13:17UA 1256	6h 46m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 20m	94%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 11:19 → SEA 13:50DL 1684	4h 00m Seattle	SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest	10h 55m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	56m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 05m	93%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON