Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2618 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2618 AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 887 AUS 13:53 → SLC 15:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2618 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	SLC 10:12	9%	3%	0.5%	94%
DL 2581 Delta Flight history →	AUS 18:04	SLC 20:02	17%	5%	0.5%	82%
DL 1006 Delta	AUS 15:34	SLC 17:39	18%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 887 Southwest	AUS 13:53	SLC 15:59	19%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON