Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:39, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2155 Southwest	AUS 14:08	SMF 16:05	19%	5%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AUS 05:39 → DEN 06:58UA 361	1h 02m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:34UA 2149	5h 55m	97%	88%
Alaska Details →	AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541	1h 35m Portland	PDX 11:00 → SMF 12:33AS 2399 · flown by Horizon	7h 18m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:10 → MSP 09:00DL 1242	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 59m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	AUS 06:00 → SEA 08:23DL 780	1h 37m Seattle	SEA 10:00 → SMF 12:07DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	8h 07m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 08:15 → SLC 10:12DL 2618	1h 23m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 01m	94%	82%
United Details →	AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595	1h 56m Denver	DEN 11:46 → SMF 13:25UA 2673	6h 54m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	AUS 13:40 → LAX 14:48DL 946	1h 50m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	AUS 18:04 → SLC 20:02DL 2581	1h 28m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582	6h 06m	92%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AUS 08:29 → PHX 09:17AA 455	46m Phoenix	PHX 10:03 → SMF 12:22AA 1677	5h 53m	62%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON