tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1921 at 15:08, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1921 Southwest AUS 15:08 SNA 16:31 21% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Austin). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → AUS 13:29 → SFO 15:30UA 1336 3h 57m San Francisco SFO 19:27 → SNA 21:12UA 589 9h 43m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 05:20 → IAH 06:23UA 1966 1h 57m Houston IAH 08:20 → SNA 09:49UA 1383 6h 29m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → AUS 08:31 → DEN 09:50UA 595 3h 35m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 8h 25m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447 2h 48m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 7h 55m 98% 83%
AlaskaDetails → AUS 07:15 → PDX 09:25AS 541 1h 13m Portland PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588 8h 00m 94% 81%
AmericanDetails → AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:36 → SNA 09:53AA 2114 6h 52m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → AUS 09:35 → IAH 10:45UA 2196 1h 42m Houston IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533 6h 21m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → AUS 12:43 → DEN 13:53UA 1541 2h 12m Denver DEN 16:05 → SNA 17:29UA 1497 6h 46m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AUS 17:58 → IAH 19:10UA 1326 51m Houston IAH 20:01 → SNA 21:31UA 326 5h 33m 68% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON