Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 432 at 05:50 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 432 AUS 05:50 → TPA 09:19 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 534 AUS 18:18 → TPA 21:50 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 432 Southwest	AUS 05:50	TPA 09:19	3%	1%	4.5%	no record
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	AUS 08:15	TPA 11:48	9%	4%	1.2%	85%
WN 433 Southwest	AUS 14:18	TPA 17:50	20%	5%	1.2%	no record
WN 534 Southwest	AUS 18:18	TPA 21:50	25%	7%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON