Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AUS 05:25 → ATL 08:47DL 1344	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → TUL 12:04DL 2620	6h 39m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	AUS 10:35 → ATL 13:54DL 2976	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 15:43 → TUL 16:44DL 2837	6h 09m	98%	80%
American Details →	AUS 05:01 → DFW 06:12AA 2563	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:05 → TUL 08:14AA 4063 · flown by Envoy	3h 13m	91%	80%
United Details →	AUS 16:10 → IAH 17:25UA 4004 · flown by Mesa	2h 49m Houston	IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa	5h 42m	95%	77%
American Details →	AUS 06:00 → DFW 07:19AA 579	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:42 → TUL 10:01AA 2348	4h 01m	96%	75%
American Details →	AUS 06:58 → DFW 08:23AA 2196	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:43 → TUL 12:02AA 2352	5h 04m	97%	71%
United Details →	AUS 14:45 → DEN 16:22UA 2447	1h 13m Denver	DEN 17:35 → TUL 20:25UA 1937	5h 40m	89%	66%
American Details →	AUS 11:37 → DFW 12:56AA 615	3h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:19 → TUL 17:38AA 2830	6h 01m	96%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AUS 17:58 → IAH 19:10UA 1326	51m Houston	IAH 20:01 → TUL 21:48UA 1927	3h 50m	68%	51%
American Details →	AUS 18:38 → ORD 21:43AA 1568	47m Chicago	ORD 22:30 → TUL 00:31 +1AA 4281 · flown by Envoy	5h 53m	64%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON