Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


G4 1884 Allegiant	AVL 08:24	BOS 10:33	9%	3%	1.2%	no record
DL 5778 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	AVL 12:54	BOS 15:27	13%	6%	1.4%	96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BOS 12:41DL 855	6h 11m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	AVL 08:30 → ATL 09:33DL 2853	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 12:18 → BOS 14:57DL 1293	6h 27m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	6h 54m	97%	76%
American Details →	AVL 10:41 → DCA 12:31AA 5213 · flown by PSA	2h 22m Washington	DCA 14:53 → BOS 16:46AA 955	6h 05m	98%	74%
American Details →	AVL 13:09 → LGA 15:14AA 4704 · flown by Republic	3h 06m New York	LGA 18:20 → BOS 19:37AA 4724 · flown by Republic	6h 28m	100%	71%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:47UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m Chicago	ORD 14:05 → BOS 17:43UA 1928	7h 02m	96%	67%
American Details →	AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 15:50 → BOS 19:37AA 1162	8h 05m	100%	64%
American Details →	AVL 13:44 → CLT 14:48AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	3h 46m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	7h 15m	96%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON