Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5213 American flown by PSA Flight history →	AVL 10:41	DCA 12:31	14%	4%	3.3%	79%
YX 4675 Republic	AVL 18:09	DCA 19:56	15%	6%	2.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712	3h 29m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 22m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:54 → BOS 15:27DL 5778 · flown by Republic	2h 39m Boston	BOS 18:06 → DCA 20:00DL 5667 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	6h 41m	99%	77%
American Details →	AVL 13:09 → LGA 15:14AA 4704 · flown by Republic	2h 11m New York	LGA 17:25 → DCA 19:07AA 4736 · flown by Republic	5h 58m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	AVL 08:30 → ATL 09:33DL 2853	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 26m	95%	76%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:47UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314	6h 31m	96%	75%
American Details →	AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 14:55 → DCA 17:59AA 2769	6h 27m	98%	70%
American Details →	AVL 13:44 → CLT 14:48AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 16:42 → DCA 18:23AA 2002	4h 39m	91%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	53m Chicago	ORD 13:22 → DCA 16:40AA 789	5h 08m	65%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON