Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 440 United	AVL 15:33	DEN 17:16	15%	7%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 13:14 → MSP 14:45DL 2181	3h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 18:15 → DEN 19:27DL 2931	8h 13m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 08:30 → ATL 09:33DL 2853	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → DEN 14:00DL 957	7h 30m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 08:44 → DEN 09:53DL 346	5h 23m	91%	75%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:47UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:30UA 2803	7h 49m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	5h 50m	91%	72%
American Details →	AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 15:10 → DEN 17:03AA 1317	7h 31m	99%	65%
American Details →	AVL 13:44 → CLT 14:48AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	2h 44m Charlotte	CLT 17:32 → DEN 19:15AA 3156	7h 31m	91%	58%
American Details →	AVL 16:44 → DFW 18:20AA 569	3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:21 → DEN 22:40AA 577	7h 56m	96%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON