Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3269 at 07:57 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 33%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3269 American	AVL 07:57	DFW 09:37	20%	6%	1.9%	no record
AA 569 American Flight history →	AVL 16:44	DFW 18:20	33%	14%	4.3%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712	3h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	7h 07m	98%	79%
American Details →	AVL 10:41 → DCA 12:31AA 5213 · flown by PSA	2h 42m Washington	DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624	8h 03m	98%	77%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:47UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	3h 53m Chicago	ORD 15:40 → DFW 18:22UA 793	8h 41m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 17:37 → DFW 18:57DL 1827	5h 51m	96%	68%
American Details →	AVL 13:44 → CLT 14:48AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 17:02 → DFW 18:53AA 3209	6h 09m	91%	58%
American Details →	AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	3h 21m Chicago	ORD 15:50 → DFW 18:27AA 2531	7h 55m	100%	58%
American Details →	AVL 13:09 → LGA 15:14AA 4704 · flown by Republic	1h 02m New York	LGA 16:16 → DFW 19:06AA 1608	6h 57m	82%	54%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON